Market Update

It used to seem hugely improbable that Forrest Gump turn up at the centre of so many earth-shaking historical incidents. But it’s March 2020 and here is Tom Hanks front-and-centre of a pandemic. Life imitating art, indeed.

With the advent of Coronavirus, we’ve seen that the herd psychology of panic buying is a phenomenon with which retailers have to cope. On the flipside, the herd psychology of panic selling must be borne by the stock market. The property market is a more considered use of capital and as such is immune to the aisle-five-fisticuffs and the stocks stampedes of recent days.

Sadly, we don’t have a crystal ball, and these are fraught times. But the one truth we can take from studying history is that the stock market money has to go somewhere. In times of national unease, it usually flows toward gold and then bricks and mortar, because bricks and mortar have proved an unimpeachable vault, beyond the wild speculations and white-eyed routs that occur in other markets.

A flight of money toward real estate would suggest a steadily rising property market for the short term, at the very least. Most pundits were predicting falls in the property market, and got it horribly wrong. They have lately been predicting juicy gains and, happily, we think that this time they will be right. However, in the longer term, if unemployment hits and the economy tanks, this trend may reverse. Always remembering that profit on your place of principle residence is tax-free.

Industry clearance rates for the 2020 summer months in the southeastern suburbs of Melbourne have been around 80%. While at Abercromby’s, utilizing our discreet sales methodology and unique avenues of exposure, we have achieved 100% clearance over the same period. At school that used to be the difference between a B and an A. The market is busy.

Abercromby’s has recently listed an array of properties ranging from the “merely” interesting to the truly mind-blowing, not only in Stonnington but further afield. So whether you’re a potential vendor or owner your first port of call should be here.

After a substantial downturn in mid-2019, Melbourne’s property market is back outperforming all other non-risk investments. Until the Coronavirus struck the majority of economists were predicting around a 10% increase in the market over the next year. And whatever revision to these estimates is required in a post Corona scenario it can be said with certainty that the market won’t be downgraded as much as stocks.

Population growth will also enable market growth, as a quarter-of-a-million immigrants are predicted to settle in Australia in the coming year, most of them in Sydney and Melbourne.

All predictions must, of course, be tempered by the fact that none of us know where Covid-19 is going to take us. And as such we must be honest and admit we are, to an extent, in unchartered waters. But one thing we know is true is that capitalism is an unkillable beast and optimism will rise again in the wake of illness.

So, stay safe out there. Everyone here at Abercromby’s is keeping our clients and their families’ health and wellbeing uppermost in our thoughts. We wish you all the best. And if you have a need to self-isolate, then here is a list of stunning properties in which self-isolation might be a relative pleasure.