Market Update

In the past month the rare alignment of a Christian celebration, a national military commemoration, and the school holidays lit up the eyes and loaded up the fuel tanks of Melburnians and they headed for the hills and beaches in record numbers. We are devout and patriotic people... but above all we are adept at tacking public holidays to annual leave and stampeding for the beautiful places. Over half of Melburnians escaped for a ten day break, and this, combined with the looming election, caused a slow down in property offered over the last month.

The recent domestic market downturn has been one of the biggest on record taking into account price falls and duration. But HSBC Australia’s Chief Economist, Paul Bloxham, has predicted it is likely to come to an end in the second half of this year, with the market stabilising. HSBC forecasts were that national housing prices would have a peak to trough decline of 10 to 15 per cent, which means the correction is nearing its end.

At Abercromby’s we take heart that the fundamentals of the real estate market are still healthy, with long-term prospects fortified by our strong economy, growing jobs market, low unemployment, and robust population growth.

If the polls are accurate there will be a change of Government with minor parties likely to hold the balance of power in the senate. Labor’s policy to limit negative gearing and halve Capital Gains Discounts is a long way from being a fait accompli if this happens. Whatever the outcome, the end of an election campaign delivers a result, and therefore some ongoing certainty to give a market confidence.

Well - we will know more in a few days or so, won’t we. But whether we’re coping with Labor’s reforms or continuing with the coalition’s status quo, it has been noted that the real estate market is a large and autonomous beast that tracks its own course regardless of the tinkerings of our Canberran friends. People generally buy and sell with a longer-term view than anything thrown up by the three-year electoral term. And as HSBC has stated, it looks like the market correction is getting close to being done and dusted.

At Abercromby’s we currently have some wonderful properties on offer. So, if you’re looking to sell or buy quietly and discreetly, contact one of the ABERCROMBY’S team on 9864 5300.